| Stratospheric spending in China related to 3G mobile | | | | Analysis of quarterly results: Huawei and ZTE gaining |
| builds relieved some pressure from a market reeling | | | | at nearly all others' expense but Alcatel-Lucent still has |
| from a full year of economic decline. ON revenues in | | | | commanding lead |
| 2Q09 were $3.79 billion, up 8% sequentially but down | | | | Subregional EMEA results |
| 11% versus 2Q08. Annualized spending fell to $15.6 | | | | Market growth and outlook |
| billion, a decrease of 4% compared to the year before | | | | 2009 spending on track with forecast |
| and the first time global annualized revenues failed to | | | | Product-level analysis |
| grow year over year since 1Q04. Huawei had the | | | | Metro WDM takes a breather as bandwidth |
| highest sales for the second consecutive quarter with | | | | management surges sequentially and backbone WDM |
| $872 million in revenue, pulling to within a fraction of a | | | | picks up with coming 40G build-outs |
| point of catching Alcatel-Lucent for overall optical | | | | Regional analysis — North America |
| networking (ON) market leadership. The Chinese | | | | 2Q09 market shows some stability; rolling average falls |
| aggregation spending frenzy pushed ZTE's revenues | | | | below $4 billion for first time since 2Q06 |
| up 213%, the highest sequential revenue growth of the | | | | Market share changes |
| top ten vendors, while NEC's sales suffered the | | | | Analysis of quarterly results: Fujitsu overtakes |
| biggest decline at 25%. Currency fluctuations continue | | | | Alcatel-Lucent by a fraction of a point |
| to hamper Alcatel-Lucent, Nortel, Nokia Siemens, Cisco, | | | | Market growth and outlook |
| and others while helping Huawei and ZTE. All product | | | | North American ON spending in 1H09 stymied by |
| segments showed a sequential increase in 2Q09 | | | | economic conditions; market tracking with pessimistic |
| except SLTE, which was down 19%. Sales grew | | | | forecast |
| sequentially in all regions except South and Central | | | | 2009–14 outlook |
| America (SCA), with Asia-Pacific showing the | | | | Product-level analysis |
| strongest advance. Global spending for the first half of | | | | 2Q09 saw some stabilization of revenues; |
| the year is tracking with our most likely forecast, which | | | | year-over-year and annualized metrics still on the |
| calls for sales totaling $15.4 billion for 2009. | | | | decline |
| HTML clipboard | | | | Regional analysis — SCA |
| Table of Contents : | | | | SCA market still in decline; only region to fall |
| Executive summary | | | | sequentially |
| In a nutshell | | | | Market share changes |
| Ovum view | | | | SCA market is concentrated at the top; large tenders |
| 2Q09 quarterly results | | | | have greater affect on share changes |
| Changes to our ON share reporting started in 1Q09 | | | | Market growth and outlook |
| Global spending up sequentially but down versus | | | | Economic slowdown sends SCA ON forecast to |
| year-ago period | | | | pessimistic scenario |
| Key messages | | | | 2009–14 outlook |
| There's China and then there's everywhere else | | | | Product-level analysis |
| Strong growth in China has benefited Huawei most | | | | More than 55% of all SCA spending is on aggregation |
| Changes in top ten market positions: ZTE and Tellabs | | | | but WDM has the strongest growth |
| move up; NEC, Ericsson, and Ciena move down | | | | List of Tables |
| Continuing demand for ON gear | | | | Table 1: Analysis of quarterly results, global ON, 2Q09 |
| Foreign exchange shifts complicate market analysis | | | | Table 2: 1H09 global ON spending versus current 2009 |
| "Slow" me the money | | | | forecast |
| Market share — global | | | | Table 3: Analysis of quarterly ON results, Asia-Pacific, |
| Regional imbalances, emerging market growth, and | | | | 2Q09 |
| architecture evolution to WDM cause share shifts | | | | Table 4: Market share by subregion, Asia-Pacific ON, |
| Market share changes | | | | 1H09 |
| Analysis of quarterly results | | | | Table 5: 1H09 Asia-Pacific ON spending versus current |
| Market growth and outlook | | | | 2009 forecast |
| Strong Asia-Pacific market growth offsets global | | | | Table 6: Product segment-level market assessment, |
| decline; WDM growth is lagging expectations so far in | | | | Asia-Pacific, 2Q09 |
| 2009 | | | | Table 7: Analysis of quarterly ON results, EMEA, 2Q09 |
| Regional analysis — all regions | | | | Table 8: Market share by subregion, EMEA ON, 1H09 |
| Asia-Pacific becomes the largest ON region; China and | | | | Table 9: 1H09 EMEA ON spending versus current |
| India market growth not affected by economic malaise | | | | 2009 forecast |
| Product-level analysis | | | | Table 10: Product segment-level market assessment: |
| Segment overview: Wireless backhaul growth | | | | EMEA |
| reverses the "metro WDM for aggregation" | | | | Table 11: Analysis of quarterly ON results, North |
| substitution trend | | | | America, 2Q09 |
| Challengers' interest in SLTE market grows despite | | | | Table 12: 1H09 North American ON spending versus |
| lumpy spending and Alcatel-Lucent's solid control of the | | | | current 2009 forecast |
| top spot | | | | Table 13: Product segment-level market assessment: |
| Regional analysis — Asia-Pacific | | | | North America |
| China's 3G build-outs drive 28% growth from last year | | | | Table 14: 1H09 SCA ON spending versus current 2009 |
| in AP; aggregation surges on wireless carrier spending | | | | forecast |
| Market share changes | | | | Table 15: Product segment-level market assessment: |
| Analysis of quarterly results: Huawei's >60% China | | | | SCA |
| share supports AP dominance; Alcatel-Lucent, ZTE, | | | | List of Figures |
| Nortel are strong multi-country players | | | | Figure 1: Global ON market revenues by quarter, |
| Subregional Asia-Pacific results | | | | 3Q07–2Q09 |
| Market growth and outlook | | | | Figure 2: Huawei vs. Alcatel-Lucent global 2Q09 |
| 2009 spending well ahead of forecast; strong wireless | | | | market share comparison with and without China |
| carrier spending pushing aggregation, BWM, and China | | | | Figure 3: Foreign exchange shifts favor Asian vendors |
| ahead of expectations | | | | Figure 4: Comparison of annualized ON market share |
| Product-level analysis | | | | for the top five global vendors |
| Aggregation given new lease on life by wireless | | | | Figure 5: Market share (rolling 4 quarters), global ON |
| network growth; CPO and metro ROADM grow | | | | Figure 6: Global market share gains and losses (rolling |
| 90–100% YoY, but 40G not yet driving backbone | | | | 4Q) for 2Q09 |
| WDM | | | | Figure 7: Global ON market by region, rolling 4 quarters, |
| Regional analysis — EMEA | | | | 2Q09 vs. 1Q09 |
| 2Q09 market drops 25% versus last year but ekes | | | | Figure 8: Global ON market by segment, rolling 4 |
| out 7% sequential growth; Huawei's rolling share hits | | | | quarters, 2Q09 vs. 1Q09 |
| 20% | | | | Figure 9: Rolling 4Q spending in aggregation vs. |
| Market share changes | | | | |